To Draft or Not to Draft…Eli Manning

You’re going to find this hard to believe, but not everyone agrees with TJI’s point of view. Crazy, we know. With all the dead-on fantasy football insight we provide, how can anyone possibly not see eye-to-eye with us? Well, apparently, there are a few of you out there that do.

One of which happens to be our good friend Rory from West Coast Nonsense. You might remember Rory from our last installment of “To Draft or Not to Draft” (TDONTD for short). He took issue with our advice NOT to draft Donald Driver. Well, this time we’re taking a stand in favor of drafting Eli Manning. And guess what? Rory thinks that’s a bad idea. Here’s Rory’s take:

“All the credit in the world should go to Eli Manning for playing darn close to mistake-free football in the playoffs, and leading the Giants to an improbable Super Bowl win. But Manning’s regular season numbers have been mediocre, and he’s just not a reliable fantasy option. He threw at least one interception in 12 games to total 20 picks last year, and had just five multi-touchdown games. He broke 300 yards passing only twice in 2007.

“The Giants have a lack of big-play receiving weapons now that Jeremy Shockey is gone, and even their top option — Plaxico Burress — had just 70 catches last year. Some people may pick Manning on the premise that he’ll morph into a solid fantasy option with a Super Bowl title under his belt, but if the last three seasons are any indicator, the Eli Manning of the regular season just isn’t a fantasy star.”

Rory, Rory, Rory. It’s such a shame that such a good writer could be so far off the mark on yet another critical fantasy football dilemma. In 2008, Manning is going to be the kind of QB that provides huge value. You can draft him late, and by the end of the season you might just be starting him. Why? Well…here’s a couple reasons…

Until we actually win a Super Bowl ourselves, we’ll never poo-poo the potential confidence boost that doing so provides. If you look at Eli’s performance down the stretch, with everything on the line, his numbers are flawless. That’s what he’s carrying over into this season. Over the past three years, confidence has been the intangible lacking in Eli Manning’s game. Well now he’s got it in spades and it will lead to better decision making and better stats.

Also, we couldn’t disagree more with your “lack of weapons” argument. Yes, they’re all a bit banged up right now, but according to the TJI Countdown to Kickoff widget, there’s still plenty of time to get well. If he can get healthy for once in the last two seasons, Plaxico is as good as it gets in the red zone. Yes, Amani Toomer is past his prime. But Steve Smith isn’t. He’s a stud in the making. And if he doesn’t win the number 3 job, Eli has Super Bowl hero David Tyree to throw to. You’ve seen what he can do when catching the ball with his head, just imagine what he’s capable of when using his hands! Throw in deep sleeper tight end Kevin Boss (no Shockey, no problem…he’ll be a huge target inside the 20) along with rookie Mario Manningham and Monday’s standout Dominic Hixson and while Manning doesn’t have a lot of big names catching the ball, he certainly has a balanced crew of receivers with a ton of upside.

We here at TJI absolutely love Rory’s blog. And we hate to keep raining on his parade. But Eli Manning is one of those quarterbacks that you’re going to draft in rounds 9-12 as a back-up, but who just might end up as your starter by mid-year. 

Join us next time for TDONTD when we take on an up-and-coming blogger on the topic of Mr. Stocking-Feet himself, Braylon Edwards.